Biofuels a vision for 2030

Biofuels

i n t h e E u ro p e a n U n i o n

A vision for 2030 and beyond

T

he EU road transport sector accounts for more

than 30% of the total energy consumption in the

Community. It is 98% dependent on fossil fuels

with a high share of imports and thus extremely

vulnerable to oil market disturbance. The growing

transport sector is considered to be one of the

main reasons for the EU failing to meet the Kyoto

targets. It is expected that 90% of the increase of

CO

2 emissions between 1990 and 2010 will be

attributable to transport.

Europe has defined ambitious targets for the

development of biofuels. The aim is to improve

European domestic energy security, improve the

overall CO

2 balance and sustain European

competitiveness. The development of innovative

biofuel technologies will help to reach these

objectives.

The current production of liquid biofuels in the

EU 25 is about 2 Mtoe, which is less than 1%

of the market. Although there have been marked

increases in production and use in recent years,

the market share is at risk of failing the EU policy

target for 2010 of 18 Mtoe used in the transport

sector.

The EU has a significant potential for the

production of biofuels. It is estimated that between

4 and 18% of the total agricultural land in the EU

would be needed to produce the amount of biofuels

to reach the level of liquid fossil fuel replacement

required for the transport sector in the Directive

2003/30/EC. Furthermore, biofuels can contribute

to the EU’s objectives of securing the EU fuel

supply while improving the greenhouse gas

balance and fostering the development of a

competitive European (biofuels and other) industry.

An ambitious and achievable vision for 2030 is that

up to one quarter of the EU’s transport fuel needs

could be met by clean and CO

2-efficient biofuels.

A substantial part will be provided by a competitive

European industry, using a wide range of biomass

resources, based on sustainable and innovative

technologies. Biofuel development will create

opportunities for biomass providers, biofuel

producers and the automotive industry. Also, the

European technology will be used in 2030 in many

countries exporting biofuels to Europe.

Reaching the vision means considerably increasing

domestic biofuel production, while balancing it

with international biofuel trade. This will not only

require substantial investment in biomass

production, harvesting, distribution and

processing, but also calls for agreed biofuel and

biofuel-blend standards.

Executive summary

V

ISION

By 2030, the European Union covers as much

as one quarter of its road transport fuel needs

by clean and CO

2-efficient biofuels.

A substantial part is provided by a

competitive European industry. This

significantly decreases the EU fossil fuel

import dependence. Biofuels are produced

using sustainable and innovative

technologies; these create opportunities

for biomass providers, biofuel producers

and the automotive industry.

The EU road transport sector accounts for more
than 30% of the total energy consumption in the
Community. It is 98% dependent on fossil fuels
with the crude oil feedstock being largely imported
and thus extremely vulnerable to oil market
disturbance. The transport sector is considered to
be one of the main reasons for the EU failing to
meet the Kyoto targets. It is expected that 90% of
the increase of CO2 emissions between 1990 and
2010 will be attributable to transport.
Internal combustion engines will continue to be
the dominant transport technology available in
2030, using mostly liquid fuels produced from both
fossil and renewable sources. Biofuels provide the
best option to replace a significant share of these
fossil fuels.
Europe has defined ambitious targets for the
development of biofuels. The aim is to improve
European domestic energy security, improve the
overall CO2 balance and sustain European
competitiveness. The development of innovative
biofuel technologies will help to reach these
objectives.
The EU has a significant potential for the
production of biofuels. Biofuel use has to increase
from its present low usage – less than 2% of
overall fuel – to a substantial fraction of the
transportation fuel consumption in Europe (in line
with this report’s vision of 25% in 2030). It is
estimated that between 4 and 18% of the total
agricultural land in the EU would be needed to
produce the amount of biofuels to reach the level
of liquid fossil fuel replacement required for the
transport sector in the Directive 2003/30/EC.
Creating an EU market for biofuels will offer an
opportunity for the new Member States that have
more agricultural land per capita and will facilitate
the absorption of the agricultural sector in the
Common Agricultural Policy.
Biofuels production represents a major opportunity
for the European economy. Developing innovative
technologies can secure new jobs in rural areas,
but also within industrial companies. In addition,
new job opportunities could also arise from
technology export. A study estimates that if the
EU target for renewable energy in the European
Union is met in 2010, the growth in net employment
in the biofuels sector could be as high as 424 000
jobs with respect to the year 2000 (see Chapter 4).
Innovative technologies are needed to produce
biofuels in an energy efficient way, from a wider
range of biomass resources and to reduce costs.
The options, which will be developed, need to be
sustainable in economic, environmental and social
terms, and bring the European industry to a
leading position.
This means that apart from purely economic
factors, e.g. investment, operating cost, and
productive capacity, other factors have to be taken
into account such as the greenhouse gas and
energy balances, the potential competition with
food production and the impact of biomass
production on the environment.
The challenge therefore is to increase substantially
the production of biofuels by using innovative
feedstock, processes and technologies, which are
both competitive and sustainable.

S

ecuring future mobility

Before determining the potential role that biofuels

in EU 25 can play by 2030 and to recommend

appropriate policies for the development of

biofuels, it is important to assess the quantity and

structure of future energy demand for transport,

and the underlying data for mobility and economic

growth. Chapter 2 presents data from the baseline

scenario of a recent study by DG TREN [3].

The main points to note from the study are the

following forecasts for the period from 2000 to

2030:

• For the EU 25, an average annual growth of 0.6%

for primary energy (0.9 % for final energy),

compared to 2.4 % increase for GDP;

• An increase in dependency on energy imports,

from 47.1% in 2000 to 67.5% in 2030;

• Freight transport growing at an annual average

of 2.1% for the EU 15 and 2.3% for the new

member states. Road traffic will gain

significantly in terms of market share, mainly at

the expense of rail. In 2030, road traffic will

account for 77.4% of freight transport services,

compared to 69.0% in 2000;

• Personal transport growing at an annual average

value of 1.5% in the EU 25, distinctly lower than

the growth in GDP. The strongest increase is

forecast for aviation, which will double its share

to 10.8% and will account for 16% of the overall

energy demand of the transport sector in 2030.

However, private cars and motorcycles will by far

remain the most important means for personal

transport, with a market share of 75.8% in 2030,

compared to 77.7% in 2000;

• The largest increase in fuel use for transport in

absolute terms is expected to be for trucks and

buses. After 2010 the fuel demand by trucks is

forecast to even exceed that for passenger cars

and motorcycles.

According to the above study, liquid hydrocarbon

fuels will dominate the market by 2030, and diesel

will increase its proportion at the expense of

gasoline. As a result there would be a deficit of

produced diesel compared to demand and an

overcapacity of gasoline production in Europe. This

imbalance is a risk to European supply security,

but could also present a substantial opportunity to

the European biodiesel industry. There will also be

a need for kerosene, mainly for aviation.

User acceptance of biofuels is paramount. Ideally,

users should not notice the difference between

conventional and biofuels, nor should they be

required to extensively modify their existing

vehicles or perform new routines when using

biofuels (although future vehicles will have to

employ new technology).

Storage, distribution and sales logistics are also

important issues. For the private motorist market

(cars), it is a benefit if the biofuels are compatible

with existing logistics systems. For commercial

vehicles, particularly truck and bus fleets, separate

(dedicated) fuel distribution systems are already

common. For commercial vehicles, overall

economics will largely dictate how the fuel

distribution is organised. In any case, existing

infrastructure investments will be in use for their

full economical life-time, even with new fuels

being introduced to the market.

It seems likely that large-scale biofuel penetration

is only possible if the existing engine technologies

can be utilised. Ideally, future biofuels could be

used as blends to gasoline, diesel or natural gas,

or as neat products. Also alternating between

biofuels, conventional fuels and blends should be

possible.

In the period to 2030 it is expected that the

regulated exhaust gas emissions (NOx, CO, HC,

particulates) will be further reduced in steps to

reach near-zero emissions, with vehicle emissions

stable over the vehicles life. High quality of the fuel

is an important enabler to comply with stringent

emission regulations. Emission standards (and

other vehicle standards) should preferably be

based on global technical regulations with

relatively minor regional adaptations. Fuel quality

must therefore be compatible with this reality on a

global basis. In parallel, energy consumption /

emission of greenhouse gases should be reduced

significantly due to legislation, incentives and

increased cost-effectiveness of the transportation

means.

Improving existing conversion technologies

Further progress is required to improve the energy

and therefore carbon balance of existing

technologies. This can be achieved by using

innovative processes for biomass conversion and

fractionation of products: thus new developments

in the areas of catalytic and separation processes

(such as membranes, new adsorbents, ionic

liquids or supercritical extraction) can lead to

improved energy efficiency and better thermal

integration.

Ethanol production from starch can advance in

economic and environmental performance by

increasing the yield and improving the quality of

co-products. New enzymes and processes can

bring starch ethanol to competitiveness with fossil

fuels in the short term.

In the case of FAME, FAEE and other derivatives,

new catalytic processes such as those based on

heterogeneous catalysis could be used to increase

the yield and economics. The use of alternative

sources of fatty acids (alternative oil-seed crops,

GM) has to be considered. The quality of byproducts

is also an important factor. Improving the

purity of glycerol can improve significantly the

competitiveness of FAME production. The optimal

use of by-products as intermediates for the

production of fine chemicals or pharmaceuticals

should also be considered. Biological processes

(e.g. based on lipase enzymes) for biodiesel

production from vegetable oil (typically rapeseed

oil in Europe) could represent a significant advance

over the present-day process of chemical

modification.

Diesel fuel can also be produced by hydrotreatment

of vegetable oil and animal greases.

The technology has reached the demonstration

stage and could be implemented soon. It is

promising in being flexible in terms of feedstock,

but requires integration with an oil refinery in order

to avoid building a dedicated hydrogen production

unit and to maintain a high level of fuel quality.

For biogas, key issues are maximising biogas

production during the digestion process and gas

purification (upgrading). It is also an option to

process the biogas further or to produce synthetic

natural gas (SNG).

The design and operation of existing biofuel plants

is largely based on empirical experience.

Therefore, the acquisition of thermodynamic, fluid

dynamic and kinetic data is required for

optimisation of existing, and the development of,

new processes. Improving the analysis and

characterisation of biochemical components,

process fluids and mixtures are needed. More

effective modelling methods for process and plant

optimisation should be developed.

By 2030, up to one quarter of the EU’s transport

fuel needs could be met by clean and CO

2-efficient

biofuels. In order that this can be realised, the

following is recommended:

1. There are many alternative types of biofuel and

production processes. To ensure competition in

the delivery of competitive, renewable and

secure biofuels it is important not to lock into

one product or technology today, but to create

an environment in which such products and

technologies can evolve.

2. For conventional biofuels, further progress is

required to improve the energy and carbon

balance of existing technologies. This can be

achieved by using innovative feedstock and

processes for biomass conversion and products

fractionation, supported by advanced modelling

methods and acquisition of chemical

engineering data for process and plant

optimisation.

3. Advanced conversion technologies are needed

for second generation biofuels. New methods

are needed for ethanol production from a wider

range of resources, including lignocellulosic

biomass. Gasification of lignocellulosic biomass

is a promising technology for the large-scale

production of biofuels for road, marine and air

transport (gasoline- and diesel-type fuels,

kerosene, DME and others).

4. The expected growth of the biofuels market and

the development of new transformation

pathways make it timely to investigate new

integrated refining schemes. The biorefineries

will be characterised by an efficient integration

of various steps, from handling and processing

of biomass, fermentation/gasification in

bioreactors, chemical processing, and final

recovery and purification of the product.

5. For supply of the biomass feedstock, sustainable

land strategies must be created that are

compatible with the climatic, environmental and

socio-economic conditions prevailing in each

region. The use of both primary and residual

products from agriculture and forestry should be

promoted. The issue of competition for biomass

resources should be properly addressed.

6. Dedicated energy crops and the use of

biotechnology will allow more efficient use of the

whole crop, resulting in an increased and

continuous supply of feedstock with uniform

characteristics.

7. The development of advanced and efficient

powertrains, including flexible fuel engines, both

for light and heavy duty vehicles, is paramount.

These technologies should aim at optimising the

utilisation of energy on a well-to-wheel basis.

The introduction of new, advanced engines

would require a clear framework and planning.

8. Agreed quality and environmental standards for

biofuels and biofuel blends are mandatory.

These standards should be developed in

consultation with all relevant stakeholders.

9. Biofuels and their raw materials are traded on

world markets. A fully self-sufficient approach

to meet the EU’s needs is neither possible nor

Recommendations

B I O F U E L S I N T H E E U R O P E A N U N I O N • A V I S I O N F O R 2 0 3 0 A N D B E Y O N D

desirable. The Commission should pursue

a balanced approach in encouraging both

domestic production and imports. Export of

European biofuel technology to countries that

export biofuels to the EU will help the EU

biofuel technology industry to achieve and

maintain a competitive position globally.

10. A full deployment of biofuels can be expected

by 2030. To achieve this, optimal co-operation

between stakeholders from research,

agriculture, forestry and industry is vital. A

good co-ordination between major European

actors will be essential and would be facilitated

by joint innovation programmes and joint

operation of large demonstration facilities.

11. A European Technology Platform [11] for Biofuels

should be established. Its scope should include

biomass-based fuels for road, water and air

transport.

12. The Technology Platform should support

further development and deployment of

currently available fuels, and it needs to

strongly promote the transition towards second

generation biofuels, which will be produced

from a wider range of feedstock and which will

help to reduce costs of “saved” CO

2. Attention

should be paid to the issue of costeffectiveness

and to assessing and monitoring

the full environmental impact of biofuels.

13. The Biofuels Technology Platform should

establish and maintain close links to other

relevant Technology Platforms such as ERTRAC

(road transport), Forest-based Sector, Plants

for the Future (“green” biotechnology),

Sustainable Chemistry (including “white” or

industrial biotechnology) and Hydrogen & Fuel

Cells, as well as to national platforms and

other RTD&D initiatives in EU Member States.

14. The EU is supporting biofuels with different

policy measures. Harmonisation of policy

measures is a complex, cross cutting and

dynamic task, and requires a thorough impact

assessment to examine what the economic and

environmental effects of an increased use of

biofuels would be. The Biofuels Technology

Platform can provide an agreed analytical base

to assist all Commission services concerned

(e.g. Directorates-General Research, Energy and

Transport, Trade, External Relations, Agriculture

and Rural Development, Environment, and

Economic and Financial Affairs).

Successful implementation of the above will help

ensure that a substantial part of the biofuels

market is provided by a competitive European

industry based on sustainable and innovative

technologies, creating opportunities for biomass

providers, biofuel producers and the automotive

industry. The established and operational Biofuels

Technology Platform will provide the scenarios

and strategic guidance for decision makers to
make it happen.

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